This standard specifies the characteristics of advanced indicators, the principles, work content and methods for determining advanced indicators. This standard applies to the work of determining advanced indicators when carrying out comprehensive standardization activities for industrial and agricultural products, and can also be used as a reference when formulating individual standards. GB/T 12366.5-1991 Guidelines for comprehensive standardization work General requirements for
determining advanced indicators GB/T12366.5-1991 Standard download decompression password: www.bzxz.net This standard specifies the characteristics of advanced indicators, the principles, work content and methods for determining advanced indicators. This standard applies to the work of determining advanced indicators when carrying out comprehensive standardization activities for industrial and agricultural products, and can also be used as a reference when formulating individual standards.

National Standard of the People's Republic of China
Guideline for the work of complex standardizationGeneral requirements of advance index1Subject content and scope of application
This standard specifies the characteristics of advance indicators, the principles, work content and methods for determining advance indicators. GB/T 12366. 5—91
This standard is applicable to the work of determining advanced indicators when carrying out comprehensive standardization activities for industrial and agricultural products. It can also be used as a reference when formulating individual standards.
2 Referenced standards
GB/112366.1 Guidelines for comprehensive standardization work Principles and methods GB/T12366.2 Guidelines for comprehensive standardization work General requirements for comprehensive standardization of industrial products GB/T12366.3 Guidelines for comprehensive standardization work General requirements for comprehensive standardization of agricultural products GB/T12366.4 Guidelines for comprehensive standardization work Methods for planning and compiling comprehensive standards 3 TerminologywwW.bzxz.Net
3.1 Advanced indicators
When formulating standards, the requirements that should be met after a certain period of time are specified for the comprehensive standardization objects based on predictions. 3.2 Advanced period
The time interval between the implementation date of the standard and the implementation date of the advanced indicators in the standard. 4 General Provisions
4.1 Characteristics of Advanced Indicators
4.1.1 Advanced indicators are usually important indicators that are predictable and relatively stable within a certain period of time. 4.1.2 Advanced indicators have an advanced period that has been scientifically demonstrated and predicted. 4.1.3 Advanced indicators are optimal during the validity period of the standard. 4.1.4 Advanced indicators can be divided into several levels (or stage indicators) and implemented according to different implementation periods, or they can be implemented without being divided into different levels according to the specified period.
4.2 Tasks of Determining Advanced Indicators
The task of determining advanced indicators is to predict the changes in the original data (demand relationship, production and use costs, indicators, scientific and technological levels, etc.) over time during the standardization process, and to determine the indicator requirements in the standard by performing optimization analysis based on the predicted values, including determining the requirements for the advanced period of the indicator, so as to ensure that the greatest possible effect is achieved under given conditions. 4.3 Principles for determining advanced indicators
4.3.1 The determination of advanced indicators must be based on scientific and technological achievements and production development levels, and on international and foreign advanced standards. The National Technical Supervision Administration approved on March 22, 1991 and implemented on December 1, 1991
in -… is the time limit for the delivery of the standard. GB/T12366.5—91
4.3.2 The determination of advanced indicators should be combined with scientific research work. It should be carried out in the initial stage of the development of the comprehensive standardization object. 4.3.3 When determining advanced indicators, it is necessary to master the predicted results of scientific and technological development and understand the laws of technological progress and product upgrading. 4.3.4. The determination of advanced indicators should focus on the sustainability and quality indicators of the comprehensive standardization object and its development trend. 5 Procedures and methods for determining advanced indicators
5.1 Selection of advanced indicator items
When carrying out comprehensive standardization, after determining the medium and long-term goals, relevant information should be widely collected, sorted and analyzed, and the indicators that determine the basic characteristics of the comprehensive standardization object should be comprehensively analyzed, and the indicators that can ensure the realization of the medium and long-term goals should be selected as advanced indicator items. 5.2 Forecasting the value of advanced indicators
5.2.1 Purpose of forecasting
The purpose of forecasting when determining advanced indicators is to examine the possible future development trend of the comprehensive standardization object and provide necessary data for determining advanced indicators. In some cases, forecasting can also be used to directly determine the values ​​of certain indicators that the comprehensive standardization object should reach after a certain period of time.
5.2.2 Requirements for forecasting
5.2.2.1 When determining the advanced indicators, the forecasting work must be based on the possibility of controlling the comprehensive standardization object within the validity period of the standard. 5.2.2.2 The advanced period and validity period of the advanced indicators must be consistent with the scientific and technological progress and the development level of the comprehensive standardization object to ensure the relative stability of the advanced indicators. 5.2.3 Conditions for forecasting
5.2.3.1 The original data and statistical information on the development and changes of the comprehensive standardization object in the longest possible period must be available. 5.2.3.2 The personnel involved in the forecasting work must be familiar with the comprehensive standardization object, have rich practical experience, be able to conduct scientific analysis of the comprehensive standardization object, reveal its internal causal relationship, and clarify the influence of various factors on the comprehensive standardization object. 5.2.3.3 They must be equipped with necessary forecasting means, such as scientific forecasting methods and technical equipment that can perform simulations. 5.2.4 Forecasting methods
When determining the leading indicators, the following three methods can be used alone or in combination. a. Extrapolation method,
b. Residential method:
c. Simulation method.
5.2.4.1 Extrapolation method
Extrapolation methods include "regression analysis method" and "exponential smoothing method". By statistically and analytically processing the original data, forecasts are made.
When the causal relationship between the predicted indicator and the factors affecting it remains basically unchanged or does not change much, the extrapolation method can be used. 5.2.4.2 Heuristic method
Heuristic methods include "Delphi method" and "Invisible method". By organizing experts to make inferences about the forecast items, the experts' answers can also be analyzed and summarized in quantitative form to make forecasts. When it is indeed the main slow setting for establishing the forecast model and evaluating its results, in advance evaluation In the advanced indicator stage, when it is difficult or impossible to use other prediction methods, the heuristic method can be used. 5.2.4.3 Simulation method
Simulation methods include mechanical simulation method and computer simulation method. By analyzing the cause and effect relationship, the corresponding model (such as physical model, computer simulation model, etc.) is established to determine the dynamics and service life of the comprehensive standardization of the Monte Carlo method. When the advanced indicator is determined, the simulation method can be used when the model can be established. The constraints of the simulation method depend on the assumptions used when establishing the model and the accuracy of the original data.
5.2.5 Objects of prediction
The objects of prediction mainly include:
CB/T 12366. 591
Level of advanced indicators, predict the possible range of development and change of advanced indicator values, a.
b. Factors affecting advanced indicators, predict the degree of influence of these factors on advanced indicators, possible range of development and change; C
Advanced period and validity period of advanced indicators, predict the best time to implement relevant advanced indicator values. 5.3 Specifying advanced indicators in standards
According to the results of forecast analysis, the advanced indicators shall be included in the relevant standards, and the implementation date and validity period of the advanced indicator values ​​shall be clearly specified in the standards.
Additional remarks:
This standard was proposed by the State Administration of Technical Supervision. This standard was drafted by the China Institute of Standardization and Information Classification and Coding, with participation from the Shaanxi Provincial Technical Supervision Bureau and Dalian Recording Equipment Factory. The main drafters of this standard are Yi Xiang, Shen Lun, Wen Xiahe, and Fan Yanrong.
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